The forecast for the 2024 hurricane season is here and it’s looking to be an exceptionally active one. Experts warn that this hurricane season has the potential to be worse than 2023, which ranked fourth for the most active hurricane season recorded in America.
According to Michael Mann, a climate scientist leading University of Pennsylvania’s research team, the new forecast calls for:
- 27-39 named storms
- A best guess of 33 named storms
To compare, last year saw 20 named storms and three major hurricanes. The most hurricanes recorded was in 2020 with 30 named storms.
University of Arizona’s 2024 hurricane prediction model specifies:
- 5 major hurricanes
- 6 category 1 or 2 hurricanes
- 21 tropical storms
To compare, that makes a total of 11 hurricanes with the historical annual average being seven. The historical annual average of tropical storms is 14.
What’s Causing an Increase in Hurricanes in 2024?
Increased activity this year can be attributed to last year's hurricane season being influenced by El Niño, a climate pattern causing above-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. For the upcoming 2024 hurricane season, experts anticipate a shift to a La Niña pattern, characterized by periodic cooling of sea surface temperatures in that region.
La Niña typically fosters the formation of more potent hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. This is due to weakened upper-level winds over the Atlantic during La Niña, which facilitates the development of stronger hurricanes without significant changes in their speed or direction relative to altitude.
“The unprecedented warmth in the tropical Atlantic right now — which we expect to persist through the hurricane season — is the dominant driving factor behind our prediction,” Michael Mann states. “While we don’t make a specific prediction for landfalling storms … an unusually active season in terms of basin-wide activity is likely to translate to an unusually active season in terms of landfalling storms.”
A Hurricane Phenomenon: Rapid Intensification
A factor that will further exacerbate a storm event is rapid intensification, a trend that scientists are seeing more frequently. Rapid intensification is when a storm’s wind speed increases by at least 35 miles per hour within a 24-hour period.
Several recent storms in Florida have undergone rapid intensification, including Hurricanes Irma, Ian, and Idalia. Robbie Berg, Warning Coordination Meteorologist for the National Hurricane Center, emphasized the potential for a Category 5 storm undergoing rapid intensification to approach major metropolitan areas in the United States, the Caribbean, or Central America.
What could initially present as a mild storm could quickly escalate to a higher category. This impacts how information and caution should be provided to protect communities.
How to Protect Your Property During Hurricane Season
In regions prone to hurricanes, the threat of rapid intensification is significant. This leaves property owners with minimal time to prepare for the sudden escalation of a mild storm into a serious hurricane.
At Flood Risk America, we’re boots on the ground helping property owners be proactive in planning for an active hurricane season. We provide 24/7 flood deployments teams to deploy custom flood panels as a vital solution in mitigating what could potentially be devastating damages.
Flood panels offer:
Quick Deployment
The beauty of flood panels lies in their quick deployment, crucial in scenarios where the warning signs of rapid intensification are short-lived. Unlike traditional sandbags or permanent barriers, flood panels can be swiftly installed when the need arises, providing an immediate shield against rising waters.
Made of Durable Materials
Marine-grade material offers toughness and versatility to protect your most precious possessions. A corrosion-resistant gel coat finish can withstand harsh elements, including saltwater, and to increase the flood panels’ lifespan.
Lightweight
FRA flood panels are less than 5lbs PSF, which means they can be easily moved from one place to another in preparation for flooding, and easy to remove post-storm.
Lifetime Warranty
You make a claim, we fix it – hassle-free – for a lifetime.
As hurricanes become increasingly unpredictable, flood panels offer property owners peace of mind amidst the uncertainty of rapidly changing weather patterns. Get ahead of the storm and safeguard your property today.
Reach out to Flood Risk America and let us equip you with a flood risk analysis and protection measures you need to weather this hurricane season with confidence.