As we move into another hurricane season, early indicators suggest hurricane season 2025 could be an active year. While most forecasts are still pending, Colorado State University (CSU) has released its annual tropical outlook, offering a first look at what may lie ahead.
While NOAA’s official forecast is expected to be released on May 22, Colorado State University - a trusted leader in hurricane prediction - has already issued its early outlook.
CSU is predicting an above-average season, including:
- 17 named storms (vs 14.4 average)
- 9 hurricanes (vs 7.2 average)
- 4 major hurricanes (vs 3.2 average)
CSU is also predicting a higher Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 155 units - well above the average of 123 - indicating the potential for stronger, more long-lasting storms this season.
Unusual Conditions Already Taking Shape in the Atlantic
One of the most noteworthy developments so far for hurricane season 2025 is the cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. Typically by spring, we begin hearing about record-warm ocean temperatures, but 2025 is defying that trend - at least for now.
Sea surface temperatures are currently running about 2°F cooler than normal for this time of year. While these levels are still warmer than long-term historical averages (dating back to the early 1980s), they represent a sharp departure from recent years, including 2024.
What’s Causing the Cooler Waters?
A key factor behind this cooler pattern appears to be a persistent high-pressure system near Bermuda. This system is generating stronger easterly trade winds across the Atlantic, which enhances upwelling - a process where colder, deeper waters rise to the surface as the warmer surface waters are pushed away by wind.
While cooler waters might suggest a quieter start to the season, they can warm rapidly in June and July. This was the case in 2019, which eventually produced Hurricane Dorian, the strongest hurricane on record to strike the Bahamas. If the high-pressure ridge near Bermuda weakens or shifts, sea surface temperatures could quickly climb, increasing the potential for early storm development.
No El Niño or La Niña: What Does This Mean for Hurricane Season 2025?
CSU forecasters are also watching another important factor for hurricane season 2025: the lack of El Niño or La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. Known as ENSO-neutral conditions, this absence of either climate pattern often results in more favorable conditions for hurricane formation in the Atlantic.
Unlike El Niño, which brings strong upper-level winds that tend to suppress hurricane formation, neutral conditions mean calmer upper-atmosphere wind patterns - a key ingredient for tropical storms to grow and strengthen.
A Hurricane Phenomenon: Rapid Intensification
A factor that will further exacerbate a storm event is rapid intensification, a trend that scientists are seeing more frequently. Rapid intensification is when a storm’s wind speed increases by at least 35 miles per hour within a 24-hour period.
Several recent storms in Florida, for example, have undergone rapid intensification, including Hurricanes Irma, Ian, and Idalia. Robbie Berg, Warning Coordination Meteorologist for the National Hurricane Center, emphasized the potential for a Category 5 storm undergoing rapid intensification to approach major metropolitan areas in the United States, the Caribbean, or Central America.
What could initially present as a mild storm could quickly escalate to a higher category storm. This impacts how information and caution should be provided to protect communities.
What's Next for Hurricane Season 2025 Forecasts?
With the NOAA’s hurricane season 2025 forecast still pending, all eyes will be on their upcoming May 22nd release. While cooler sea surface temperatures and neutral ENSO conditions are providing mixed signals, forecasters agree that it's too early to let our guard down. The Atlantic can heat up quickly, and hurricane season doesn’t officially peak until later in the summer.
While there’s still some uncertainty, now is the time to review and refresh your hurricane preparedness plans.
How to Protect Your Property During Hurricane Season 2025
In regions prone to hurricanes, the threat of rapid intensification is significant. This leaves property owners with minimal time to prepare for the sudden escalation of a mild storm into a serious hurricane.
At Flood Risk America, we’re boots on the ground helping property owners be proactive in planning for hurricane season 2025. Our 24/7 flood deployment team can deploy custom flood panels as a vital solution in mitigating what could potentially be devastating damages.
Our custom flood panels offer:
Quick Deployment - Quick deployment is crucial in scenarios where the warning signs of rapid intensification are short-lived. Unlike traditional sandbags or permanent barriers, flood panels can be swiftly installed when the need arises, providing an immediate shield against rising waters.
Made of Durable Materials - Marine-grade material offers toughness and versatility to protect your most precious possessions. A corrosion-resistant gel coat finish can withstand harsh elements, including saltwater, and increases the flood panels’ lifespan.
Lightweight - FRA flood panels are less than 5lbs PSF, which means they can be easily moved from one place to another in preparation for flooding, and easy to remove post-storm.
Lifetime Warranty - You make a claim, we fix it – hassle-free – for a lifetime.
As hurricanes become increasingly unpredictable, flood panels offer property owners peace of mind amidst the uncertainty of rapidly changing weather patterns.
While flood protection products are essential in defending your property from water damage, they’re only one part of the equation. A well-prepared emergency flood protection plan ensures you know exactly how and when to deploy those products - and who to call when time is critical. Make sure your flood protection strategy is both equipped and executed.
- For expertly engineered flood protection products, take a look at Flood Risk America’’s flood barriers.
- For 24/7 emergency support and a customized flood response plan, visit Flood Response Assistance.
Don’t wait until it’s too late - work with flood experts and protect what matters most this hurricane season 2025.