Colorado State University has released their report on seasonal hurricane activity and landfall strike probability for 2022, led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and coauthor Dr. Michael Bell. The report predicts ‘above-average’ hurricane activity with 130% of the average season and shows characteristics similar to 1996, 2001, 2008, 2011, 2017, and 2021.
The CSU uses a statistical model based on 40 years of past Atlantic hurricane statistics, including:
- El Niño
- Sea surface temperatures
- Sea level pressures
- Vertical wind shear levels
The team also uses the output from the ECMWF (European) model, UKMET model, and the Japan Meteorological Agency model to supplement their technique.
What the CSU predicts vs historical comparisons
The report details that a major reason for the above average hurricane season is the absence of El Niño, a powerful wind force that can break down hurricanes as they form in the Caribbean and Atlantic.
- 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes
- Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 160
In comparison, the averages for 1991-2020 were 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, 3.2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 123.
- 71% chance of a major hurricane making landfall (long-term average 52%)
- 47% chance of a major hurricane on the East Coast or Florida Peninsula (long-term average 31%)
- 46% chance of a major hurricane in the Gulf Coast (long-term average 30%)
- 60% chance of a major hurricane in the Carribeans (long-term average 42%)
Preparing your home and business for hurricane season
The National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA) defines the official hurricane season between June 1 to November 30, but this can begin earlier and last longer, depending on activity. Major hurricanes are considered to be a Category 3, 4, or 5 with high winds ranging between 111 mph to 157 mph and more. A major hurricane is defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale, which is based on wind speed, but does not take into account storm surges and rainfall.
A major hurricane can leave behind devastating damage, including catastrophic flooding, power outages, and homes and buildings ripped apart by wind. Homeowners and businesses can mitigate these losses with proper hurricane preparation:
- Have your roof inspected
- Install hurricane clips to protect your roof from high winds
- Protect entry doors and garage doors
- Have your windows inspected and install impact-resistant shutters
- Have floodproofing measures in place
Flood Risk America’s residential and commercial dry floodproofing measures:
- FRA Flood Panels
- FRA Equipment Protection
- FRA Drain Covers
- FRA Compression Panels for Glass Openings
- FRA Protection Boxes
- Wind-Driven Hail Protection
- Water-Filled Flood Barriers
FEMA’s hurricane preparation recommendations
Along with preparing your home and business for a flood event due to a hurricane, we want to highlight The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) recommendations on preparing your family for an emergency. This includes:
- Preparing a “go bag” with medication, clothes, and emergency supplies such as a first aid kit and flashlights
- Researching your local evacuation routes
- Planning where you will stay ahead of time
- Protecting important documents in waterproof containers such as birth certificates, medical records, legal documents, financial documents, and insurance cards
- Signing up for local alerts and warnings
- Updating emergency contacts
- Listening to local authorities and evacuate as soon as possible
Last but certainly not least, stay up-to-date with hurricane reports in and around your area. CSU will release their hurricane forecast updates on June 2, July 7, and August 4, 2022. The National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA) will release their hurricane prediction report in late May. Being aware of potential hurricane activity, protecting your home and business, and most importantly, preparing for emergencies ahead of time is the best way to safeguard your family during the upcoming hurricane season.